Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Minten 48.5% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 78.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Nelson
Minten
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Minten
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Minten
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Minten
1
2
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Minten
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
49.6% (603)
+1.1%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
45.8% (48)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
32.6% (43)
+10.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Minten shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Minten is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Home / Away
Nelson
Minten
Home
52.3% (621)
51.6% (322)
Away
48.9% (618)
45.4% (372)
By Period
Nelson
Minten
P1
48.4%
44.9%
P2
53.5%
46.6%
P3
50.3%
52.1%
OT
41.2%
83.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 11:10 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:32 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:22 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |