Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 47.8%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Minten 48.0% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.2%
62.2%
37.8%
Nelson
Minten
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Minten
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Minten
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Minten
1
2
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Minten
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.8% (793)
-0.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
45.8% (59)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
34.0% (47)
+9.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Minten shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Minten is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Nelson
Minten
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.2% (449)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
44.4% (450)
By Period
Nelson
Minten
P1
48.7%
44.0%
P2
48.5%
46.4%
P3
47.7%
52.1%
OT
45.6%
83.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 11:10 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:32 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:22 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |