Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 30 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Carter 53.2% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 50-37 in 87 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 78.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 69.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.2%
72.2%
27.8%
Nelson
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
37
-
50
(87 meetings)
37
50
Nelson
Carter
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
18
10
Nelson
Carter
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
8
22
Nelson
Carter
30 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
11
18
Nelson
Carter
29 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
53.3% (8,728)
-5.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
57.3% (1,554)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
46.3% (1,087)
-2.5%
On even strength, Carter has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carter
Home
50.0% (5,845)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Nelson
Carter
P1
48.7%
53.6%
P2
48.5%
52.8%
P3
47.7%
53.1%
OT
45.6%
56.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 03:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:24 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:18 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 12:48 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 15:20 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 2 | 09:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | 19:43 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |