Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Carter 58.5% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 83.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.1%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Nelson
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Nelson
Carter
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
Carter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
5
Nelson
Carter
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
2
Nelson
Carter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
59.7% (727)
-12.8%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
68.1% (72)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
53.2% (139)
-28.2%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carter
Home
48.9% (521)
58.7% (455)
Away
45.5% (516)
60.0% (483)
By Period
Nelson
Carter
P1
45.9%
61.3%
P2
48.0%
57.1%
P3
48.0%
59.8%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
45.3%
60.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 2 | 09:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | 19:43 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |