Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Carter 56.4% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 84.7%
Neutral zone
Carter 55.4%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Nelson
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Nelson
Carter
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
Carter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
4
Nelson
Carter
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Carter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
57.9% (885)
-8.0%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
61.7% (133)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
45.4% (119)
-16.8%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carter
Home
49.8% (458)
58.2% (543)
Away
49.0% (506)
55.9% (594)
By Period
Nelson
Carter
P1
50.1%
57.5%
P2
45.4%
57.1%
P3
52.7%
55.8%
OT
33.3%
68.2%
Final 5 min
47.1%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 16:00 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 12:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 02:45 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 08:18 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:03 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 09:39 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 09:35 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 09:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |