Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 42.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Carter 54.6% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 67.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Nelson
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Nelson
Carter
Last 6: Nelson 2-4 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Carter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
0
3
Nelson
Carter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
53.1% (307)
-5.1%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
62.5% (64)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
70.4% (27)
-29.9%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +29.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Nelson is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (250).
Nelson shoots left. Carter is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (282).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carter
Home
51.1% (399)
58.9% (285)
Away
45.6% (406)
47.8% (113)
By Period
Nelson
Carter
P1
51.8%
54.9%
P2
47.5%
57.5%
P3
46.5%
56.0%
OT
20.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2017 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 2 | 04:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 1 | 12:44 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |