Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 51.2%). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Carter 51.1% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.9%
Defensive zone
Carter 55.4%
Neutral zone
Carter 56.0%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Nelson
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Carter
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Carter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Carter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
52.2% (552)
-1.5%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
56.4% (94)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
41.0% (100)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Carter is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carter
Home
53.6% (603)
51.2% (324)
Away
49.9% (585)
51.2% (422)
By Period
Nelson
Carter
P1
55.4%
49.8%
P2
47.2%
52.8%
P3
52.6%
51.2%
OT
51.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
51.8%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 13:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 1 | 09:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 02:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |