Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Patrick 52.1% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Patrick 54.7%
Defensive zone
Patrick 54.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.3%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Nelson
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nelson
Patrick
Last 7: Nelson 5-2 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Patrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
1
2
Nelson
Patrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Patrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
51.2% (371)
-2.7%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
62.2% (37)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
59.1% (22)
-1.6%
On power play, Patrick has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Nelson is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Nelson shoots left. Patrick is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Nelson
Patrick
Home
55.0% (362)
48.5% (231)
Away
43.5% (345)
57.3% (199)
By Period
Nelson
Patrick
P1
49.3%
52.0%
P2
53.6%
52.3%
P3
46.0%
53.2%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.7%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 02:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 12:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 02:04 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 14:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 05:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 05:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 02:02 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |