Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Patrick 51.0% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 17-13 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Patrick 52.0%
Defensive zone
Patrick 51.7%
Neutral zone
Patrick 51.6%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Nelson
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
13
(30 meetings)
17
13
Nelson
Patrick
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Patrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
3
7
Nelson
Patrick
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
11
3
Nelson
Patrick
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.6% (1,978)
-2.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
57.5% (120)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
57.7% (26)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Patrick is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,441).
Home / Away
Nelson
Patrick
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.7% (1,106)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
52.5% (1,018)
By Period
Nelson
Patrick
P1
48.7%
52.9%
P2
48.5%
49.1%
P3
47.7%
51.3%
OT
45.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 02:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 12:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 02:04 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 14:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 05:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 05:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 02:02 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 3 | 17:36 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 3 | 17:26 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 3 | 11:44 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 3 | 06:16 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 02:06 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 03:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 1 | 05:44 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |