Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nash on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Nash 48.2% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Nelson
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Nash
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Nash
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
1
2
Nelson
Nash
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
48.3% (449)
+2.4%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
37.5% (8)
+22.3%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
45.5% (55)
+2.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Nash is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nash
Home
53.6% (603)
51.6% (275)
Away
49.9% (585)
43.5% (237)
By Period
Nelson
Nash
P1
55.4%
52.7%
P2
47.2%
43.9%
P3
52.6%
47.7%
OT
51.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 09:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 11:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 06:18 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 09:46 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 15:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |