Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.5%). Look for Nash on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Nash 48.5% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Nash leads 15-11 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.1%
Defensive zone
Nash 65.0%
Neutral zone
Nash 57.0%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Nelson
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
15
(26 meetings)
11
15
Nelson
Nash
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Nelson
Nash
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
2
3
Nelson
Nash
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
5
8
Nelson
Nash
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.7% (4,621)
-0.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
51.0% (249)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
44.9% (550)
-1.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Nash is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,747).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nash
Home
50.0% (5,845)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
Nelson
Nash
P1
48.7%
49.0%
P2
48.5%
47.9%
P3
47.7%
48.0%
OT
45.6%
68.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 18:36 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 09:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 11:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 06:18 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 09:46 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 15:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 15:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 3 | 00:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 1 | 14:15 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 19:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 08:17 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 2 | 19:27 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 10:05 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 2 | 16:53 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 03:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 2 | 18:09 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2 | 06:47 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2 | 03:39 | Defensive | Riley Nash |