Scouting Report
Rourke Chartier holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Chartier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Chartier 51.5% (-6.8%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.1%
Defensive zone
Chartier 64.8%
Neutral zone
Chartier 54.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Nelson
Chartier
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Chartier
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
54.2% (225)
-8.1%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
75.0% (4)
-40.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
43.3% (67)
-12.9%
On power play, Chartier has a +40.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chartier shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Chartier is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Nelson
Chartier
Home
48.7% (419)
49.5% (202)
Away
41.3% (368)
57.4% (94)
By Period
Nelson
Chartier
P1
44.6%
51.6%
P2
47.3%
49.5%
P3
43.0%
54.6%
Final 5 min
39.4%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Chartier
60.0%▲
50.5%
52.0%