Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.4%). Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Carpenter 48.5% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Carpenter leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.3%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 72.5%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 60.8%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Nelson
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Nelson
Carpenter
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
3
Nelson
Carpenter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
4
Nelson
Carpenter
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Nelson
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
49.6% (2,027)
-1.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
41.5% (41)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
43.9% (467)
-0.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carpenter
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Nelson
Carpenter
P1
48.7%
49.6%
P2
48.5%
47.7%
P3
47.7%
48.0%
OT
45.6%
55.6%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 09:04 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 1 | 10:03 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 12, 2018 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 12, 2018 | 1 | 09:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 03:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 17:04 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 05:43 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |