Brock Nelson vs Ryan Carpenter

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.1% vs 48.4%). Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Nelson 48.1% vs Carpenter 48.5% (-0.3%)
H2H factor Carpenter leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone Nelson 70.8%
Defensive zone Carpenter 63.9%
Neutral zone Carpenter 54.2%
Result Brock Nelson favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Nelson Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
3 - 8 (11 meetings)
3
8
Nelson Carpenter
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Carpenter

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
3
Nelson Carpenter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
4
Nelson Carpenter
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Nelson Carpenter
1 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Nelson
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
49.6% (2,027)
-1.8%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
41.5% (41)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
43.9% (467)
-0.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.6% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carpenter
Home
49.8% (5,696)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Nelson
Carpenter
P1
48.6%
49.6%
P2
48.4%
47.7%
P3
47.4%
48.0%
OT
46.4%
55.6%
Final 5 min
47.4%
49.6%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%
46.0%
48.1%
Carpenter
48.0%
47.0%
48.4%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Nov 8, 2022 3 08:46 Offensive Ryan Carpenter
Oct 26, 2022 3 09:04 Offensive Ryan Carpenter
Dec 20, 2018 1 10:03 Defensive Ryan Carpenter
Dec 12, 2018 3 06:25 Defensive Ryan Carpenter
Dec 12, 2018 1 09:35 Defensive Brock Nelson
Oct 21, 2017 2 03:01 Offensive Brock Nelson
Oct 14, 2017 2 17:04 Defensive Ryan Carpenter
Oct 14, 2017 2 05:43 Offensive Ryan Carpenter
Oct 14, 2017 2 05:26 Neutral Ryan Carpenter
Oct 14, 2017 2 02:24 Offensive Brock Nelson
Oct 14, 2017 1 11:40 Defensive Ryan Carpenter