Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Carpenter 48.2% (-2.6%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.4%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 71.0%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 55.5%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Nelson
Carpenter
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
48.8% (404)
-2.7%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
100.0% (1)
-65.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
43.6% (101)
-13.2%
On power play, Carpenter has a +65.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carpenter
Home
48.7% (419)
48.9% (274)
Away
41.3% (368)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Nelson
Carpenter
P1
44.6%
51.9%
P2
47.3%
49.4%
P3
43.0%
41.8%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%