Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Carpenter 52.2% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Nelson
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Nelson
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
2
Nelson
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
53.1% (113)
-6.2%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
100.0% (1)
-42.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
60.0% (10)
-35.0%
On power play, Carpenter has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Carpenter is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carpenter
Home
48.9% (521)
58.5% (65)
Away
45.5% (516)
49.2% (59)
By Period
Nelson
Carpenter
P1
45.9%
65.8%
P2
48.0%
50.0%
P3
48.0%
47.9%
Final 5 min
45.3%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 09:04 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |