Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 42.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Carpenter 50.2% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.4%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 56.5%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 51.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Nelson
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Nelson
Carpenter
Last 6: Nelson 2-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
2
Nelson
Carpenter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Nelson
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
48.4% (314)
-0.4%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
60.0% (5)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
57.0% (79)
-16.5%
On penalty kill, Carpenter has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Nelson is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (250).
Nelson shoots left. Carpenter is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (278).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carpenter
Home
51.1% (399)
55.8% (197)
Away
45.6% (406)
44.8% (201)
By Period
Nelson
Carpenter
P1
51.8%
48.3%
P2
47.5%
47.8%
P3
46.5%
54.6%
OT
20.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
59.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 03:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 17:04 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 05:43 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |