Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs McLeod 47.8% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 58.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 70.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Nelson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Nelson
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
49.2% (796)
+1.5%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
44.8% (87)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
43.3% (263)
+0.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Nelson
McLeod
Home
52.3% (621)
49.2% (575)
Away
48.9% (618)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Nelson
McLeod
P1
48.4%
52.8%
P2
53.5%
45.1%
P3
50.3%
45.6%
OT
41.2%
35.7%
Final 5 min
50.8%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |