Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs McLeod 46.6% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 63.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
Nelson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Nelson
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
48.2% (587)
+1.8%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
49.3% (67)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
39.5% (210)
+2.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Nelson shoots left. McLeod is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Home / Away
Nelson
McLeod
Home
50.4% (472)
47.3% (450)
Away
48.6% (477)
44.9% (414)
By Period
Nelson
McLeod
P1
47.2%
52.6%
P2
53.4%
43.3%
P3
47.8%
43.6%
OT
50.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
McLeod
50.0%▬
50.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |