Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs McLeod 49.6% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 58.2%
Neutral zone
McLeod 50.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Nelson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Nelson
McLeod
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
McLeod
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
McLeod
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
3
Nelson
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.4% (3,345)
-2.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
51.0% (292)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
44.3% (635)
-0.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. McLeod is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Nelson
McLeod
Home
50.0% (5,845)
50.2% (2,158)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Nelson
McLeod
P1
48.7%
50.8%
P2
48.5%
48.4%
P3
47.7%
50.0%
OT
45.6%
37.1%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:10 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:26 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 01:05 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 11:03 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 3 | 07:35 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 08:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 13:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |