Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Gagner 46.0% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Gagner leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 78.6%
Defensive zone
Gagner 65.8%
Neutral zone
Gagner 70.6%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 74.0%
26.0%
74.0%
Nelson
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
12
(18 meetings)
6
12
Nelson
Gagner
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
2
8
Nelson
Gagner
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Gagner
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
3
Nelson
Gagner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
45.4% (4,699)
+2.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
51.5% (928)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
35.0% (226)
+8.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gagner
Home
50.0% (5,845)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Nelson
Gagner
P1
48.7%
44.6%
P2
48.5%
46.1%
P3
47.7%
47.3%
OT
45.6%
42.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 03:05 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 2 | 18:51 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 19:02 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 2 | 15:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 15:52 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 06:50 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 2 | 01:55 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 10:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 1 | 03:53 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |