Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Gagner 47.5% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.2%
Defensive zone
Gagner 64.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Nelson
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
51.3% (158)
-1.4%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
66.7% (36)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
33.6% (110)
-5.0%
On power play, Gagner has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Gagner is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (240).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gagner
Home
49.8% (458)
53.2% (154)
Away
49.0% (506)
40.0% (150)
By Period
Nelson
Gagner
P1
50.1%
35.6%
P2
45.4%
52.7%
P3
52.7%
51.9%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.4%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |