Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Couturier 53.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Couturier leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.8%
Defensive zone
Couturier 61.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Nelson
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Nelson
Couturier
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Couturier
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
6
Nelson
Couturier
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
53.4% (758)
-2.7%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
62.9% (70)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
50.7% (227)
-7.3%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Nelson
Couturier
Home
52.3% (621)
50.7% (517)
Away
48.9% (618)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Nelson
Couturier
P1
48.4%
55.2%
P2
53.5%
53.0%
P3
50.3%
53.3%
OT
41.2%
42.4%
Final 5 min
50.8%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 14:42 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 09:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 19:13 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 12:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 04:59 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |