Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 39 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Couturier 52.6% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Couturier leads 61-45 in 106 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 75.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Nelson
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
45
-
61
(106 meetings)
45
61
Nelson
Couturier
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
17
17
Nelson
Couturier
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
14
25
Nelson
Couturier
39 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
14
19
Nelson
Couturier
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
52.5% (11,063)
-4.6%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
59.7% (1,280)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
48.5% (1,816)
-4.7%
On power play, Couturier has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (8,920).
Home / Away
Nelson
Couturier
Home
50.0% (5,845)
53.4% (7,147)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
51.8% (7,019)
By Period
Nelson
Couturier
P1
48.7%
52.5%
P2
48.5%
52.6%
P3
47.7%
52.9%
OT
45.6%
49.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 14:42 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 09:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 19:13 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 12:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 04:59 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 06:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 14:44 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 14:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |