Scouting Report
Tim Washe holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Washe on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.5% vs Washe 55.6% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.5%
Defensive zone
Washe 60.7%
Neutral zone
Washe 51.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Nelson
Washe
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Washe
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Washe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Washe
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Washe
1
2
Nelson
Washe
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Washe
0
1
Nelson
Washe
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Washe
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (871)
60.9% (207)
-10.3%
Power Play
58.1% (160)
100.0% (3)
-41.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (193)
41.7% (48)
+2.3%
On power play, Washe has a +41.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Washe shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (792).
Nelson shoots left. Washe is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (180).
Home / Away
Nelson
Washe
Home
52.3% (621)
63.3% (120)
Away
48.8% (603)
52.9% (138)
By Period
Nelson
Washe
P1
48.3%
60.2%
P2
53.4%
61.0%
P3
50.4%
53.6%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
62.0%▲
54.5%
50.6%
Washe
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:02 | Defensive | Tim Washe |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 18:34 | Defensive | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 09:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 02:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |