Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Boyd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Boyd 43.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 87.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 81.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Nelson
Boyd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nelson
Boyd
Last 5: Nelson 4-1 Boyd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Boyd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Boyd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Boyd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Boyd
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
43.4% (893)
+3.5%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
51.5% (136)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
34.6% (127)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Boyd has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Boyd shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Boyd is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Nelson
Boyd
Home
48.9% (521)
46.0% (570)
Away
45.5% (516)
41.0% (586)
By Period
Nelson
Boyd
P1
45.9%
38.9%
P2
48.0%
50.4%
P3
48.0%
41.1%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Boyd
50.0%▲
48.0%
43.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 17:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 02:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 16:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 07:02 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |