Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Kozak 47.8% (+5.9%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 59.6%
Defensive zone
Kozak 57.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Nelson
Kozak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
46.0% (137)
+5.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
66.7% (3)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
40.0% (5)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Kozak is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kozak
Home
52.5% (590)
51.2% (84)
Away
51.7% (619)
39.3% (61)
By Period
Nelson
Kozak
P1
50.5%
57.1%
P2
54.4%
34.7%
P3
51.4%
48.1%
Final 5 min
57.3%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
46.2%