Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.6%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Kozak 48.8% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.2%
Defensive zone
Kozak 65.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Nelson
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Kozak
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
1
Nelson
Kozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
Kozak
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.3% (431)
-0.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
62.5% (8)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
48.9% (45)
-5.1%
On power play, Kozak has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Kozak is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kozak
Home
50.0% (5,845)
47.6% (229)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Nelson
Kozak
P1
48.7%
54.4%
P2
48.5%
45.7%
P3
47.7%
45.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:49 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:09 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |