Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.4%). Look for Froese on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Froese wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Froese 48.5% vs MacKinnon 48.6% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.6%
Defensive zone
Froese 85.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.3%
Result
Byron Froese favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Froese
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Froese
MacKinnon
Last 5: Froese 4-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Froese
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Froese
4
0
Froese
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Froese
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (461)
48.2% (849)
+0.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
51.0% (151)
-22.4%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (174)
44.7% (47)
+3.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Froese is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Froese shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Froese
MacKinnon
Home
48.1% (312)
51.2% (521)
Away
48.5% (330)
45.6% (526)
By Period
Froese
MacKinnon
P1
43.6%
49.9%
P2
48.4%
48.0%
P3
52.4%
47.9%
OT
75.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Froese
50.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2015 | 3 | 12:02 | Defensive | Byron Froese |
| Dec 21, 2015 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Byron Froese |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Byron Froese |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Byron Froese |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |