Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Soderberg on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Soderberg 49.4% vs Thornton 52.4% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 76.0%
Defensive zone
Soderberg 64.4%
Neutral zone
Thornton 55.6%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Soderberg
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Soderberg
Thornton
Last 9: Soderberg 6-3 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Soderberg
2
0
Soderberg
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Soderberg
4
3
Soderberg
Thornton
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Soderberg
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (755)
52.5% (638)
-2.0%
Power Play
55.0% (80)
57.1% (35)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (235)
50.0% (2)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Soderberg is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (696).
Soderberg shoots left. Thornton is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Soderberg
Thornton
Home
50.1% (555)
54.8% (341)
Away
48.5% (515)
50.6% (334)
By Period
Soderberg
Thornton
P1
49.9%
55.2%
P2
45.5%
56.5%
P3
52.2%
47.1%
OT
55.6%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Soderberg
56.0%▲
51.0%
49.3%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2019 | 2 | 12:06 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 10:08 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 12:36 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Carl Soderberg |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 3 | 12:12 | Neutral | Carl Soderberg |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 3 | 04:59 | Neutral | Carl Soderberg |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 1 | 02:28 | Defensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 1 | 02:15 | Neutral | Carl Soderberg |