Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rowney wins 36.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rowney 46.8% vs Stepan 54.8% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rowney 52.7%
Defensive zone
Rowney 53.4%
Neutral zone
Rowney 51.2%
Result
Carter Rowney favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Rowney
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Rowney
Stepan
Last 5: Rowney 2-3 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rowney
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Rowney
Stepan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rowney
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (158)
54.5% (374)
-8.3%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
0.0% (2)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
64.7% (68)
-48.0%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +48.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Rowney is 36.6% vs right-shot opponents (41).
Rowney shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Rowney
Stepan
Home
46.5% (114)
54.5% (222)
Away
41.2% (51)
57.2% (222)
By Period
Rowney
Stepan
P1
50.0%
57.5%
P2
45.1%
54.7%
P3
39.6%
55.9%
Final 5 min
52.6%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rowney
52.0%▲
45.0%
44.8%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 09:50 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 09:21 | Offensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 05:32 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |