Scouting Report
Carter Rowney holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Rowney wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rowney 49.2% vs Stepan 46.6% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 76.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 51.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 56.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Rowney
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Rowney
Stepan
Last 10: Rowney 4-6 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
3
Rowney
Stepan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
3
Rowney
Stepan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
3
Rowney
Stepan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rowney
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (924)
46.5% (10,204)
+2.9%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
48.8% (1,593)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (208)
44.2% (1,368)
+4.4%
On power play, Stepan has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Rowney is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (346).
Rowney shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Home / Away
Rowney
Stepan
Home
50.4% (577)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
47.9% (560)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Rowney
Stepan
P1
50.1%
47.5%
P2
47.9%
45.6%
P3
49.3%
46.8%
OT
60.0%
40.7%
Final 5 min
46.2%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rowney
52.0%▲
45.0%
49.2%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 09:50 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 09:21 | Offensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 05:32 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 1 | 16:56 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | Carter Rowney |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 1 | 05:45 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 1 | 00:09 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2017 | 3 | 19:54 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 16, 2017 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 3 | 15:11 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |