Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rowney wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rowney 49.2% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 91.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 65.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 78.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 78.4%
21.6%
78.4%
Rowney
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Rowney
Pavelski
Last 8: Rowney 5-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Rowney
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rowney
3
0
Rowney
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rowney
2
0
Rowney
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rowney
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (924)
53.6% (8,791)
-4.2%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
58.2% (2,122)
-18.2%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (208)
50.9% (1,138)
-2.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Rowney is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (346).
Rowney shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Rowney
Pavelski
Home
50.4% (577)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
47.9% (560)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Rowney
Pavelski
P1
50.1%
53.5%
P2
47.9%
55.2%
P3
49.3%
53.9%
OT
60.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
46.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rowney
52.0%▲
45.0%
49.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 1 | 16:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 10:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 10:22 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 1 | 02:47 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 1 | 01:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |