Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cizikas on defensive-zone draws (84% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 51.9% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Cizikas leads 24-21 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 79.7%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 79.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 56.3%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Cizikas
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
21
(45 meetings)
24
21
Cizikas
Pavelski
Last 10: Cizikas 3-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
13
Cizikas
Pavelski
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
16
3
Cizikas
Pavelski
19 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Cizikas
Pavelski
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (8,946)
53.6% (8,791)
-0.2%
Power Play
55.4% (177)
58.2% (2,122)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (1,895)
50.9% (1,138)
-6.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cizikas is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,864).
Cizikas shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Pavelski
Home
53.7% (5,498)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
50.1% (5,521)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Cizikas
Pavelski
P1
53.0%
53.5%
P2
51.1%
55.2%
P3
51.7%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
51.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 19:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 11:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 06:05 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 18:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 15:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 2 | 16:45 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 08:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 06:15 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 18:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 17:19 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 1 | 17:11 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |