Casey Mittelstadt vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Pageau 58.7% (-15.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 70.0%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 55.1%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 69.8%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Last 6: Mittelstadt 2-4 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Mittelstadt
Pageau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Mittelstadt
Pageau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
Pageau
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
59.6% (711)
-14.9%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
64.0% (114)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
56.4% (163)
-16.4%
On power play, Pageau has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Mittelstadt is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Home
46.0% (491)
59.3% (506)
Away
42.4% (512)
60.0% (482)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Pageau
P1
44.0%
56.8%
P2
46.4%
64.4%
P3
41.9%
56.9%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
39.3%
61.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 09:23 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:36 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 05:33 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |