Casey Mittelstadt vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 45.6% vs Pageau 54.8% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 28-10 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 97.0%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 93.0%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 96.8%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 95.1%
95.1%
4.9%
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
28
(38 meetings)
10
28
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Last 10: Mittelstadt 3-7 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
7
Mittelstadt
Pageau
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
15
Mittelstadt
Pageau
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
6
Mittelstadt
Pageau
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (3,922)
55.7% (9,486)
-10.7%
Power Play
49.7% (666)
57.0% (1,002)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (96)
49.6% (2,069)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Mittelstadt is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,904).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Home
46.7% (2,316)
56.3% (6,214)
Away
44.3% (2,368)
53.4% (6,343)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Pageau
P1
46.8%
54.6%
P2
46.1%
56.3%
P3
44.0%
53.5%
OT
36.6%
54.4%
Final 5 min
43.6%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.5%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | OT | 00:39 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:21 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 09:23 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:36 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 05:33 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:23 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 15:59 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |