Casey Mittelstadt vs Justin Dowling
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Justin Dowling holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Dowling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Dowling 48.7% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 60.7%
Defensive zone
Dowling 78.1%
Neutral zone
Dowling 70.1%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Mittelstadt
Dowling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Mittelstadt
Dowling
Last 7: Mittelstadt 5-2 Dowling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
4
0
Mittelstadt
Dowling
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
0
1
Mittelstadt
Dowling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
Dowling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Dowling
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
48.7% (318)
-4.0%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
20.0% (5)
+20.2%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
50.0% (4)
-10.0%
On power play, Mittelstadt has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowling shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Dowling is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Dowling
Home
46.0% (491)
49.0% (145)
Away
42.4% (512)
47.8% (182)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Dowling
P1
44.0%
48.1%
P2
46.4%
49.1%
P3
41.9%
47.8%
Final 5 min
39.3%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:18 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 04:59 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:04 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 13:09 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |