Casey Mittelstadt vs Pavel Buchnevich
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs Buchnevich 41.5% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 87.7%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 72.7%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 71.8%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Mittelstadt
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Mittelstadt
Buchnevich
Last 8: Mittelstadt 6-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
1
Mittelstadt
Buchnevich
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
1
Mittelstadt
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
37.6% (197)
+8.8%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
50.0% (6)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
0.0% (3)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Buchnevich is 38.7% vs left-shot opponents (142).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Buchnevich
Home
47.7% (583)
43.0% (114)
Away
46.4% (541)
30.4% (92)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Buchnevich
P1
50.0%
40.0%
P2
46.2%
35.7%
P3
45.5%
35.7%
Final 5 min
43.8%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 01:04 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:57 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:13 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:06 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:36 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 01:01 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 09:14 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |