Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 49.2% vs Zacha 51.3% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 65.5%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 58.8%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 58.7%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Mittelstadt
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Mittelstadt
Zacha
Last 5: Mittelstadt 1-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Mittelstadt
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
3
Mittelstadt
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (345)
53.3% (411)
-7.2%
Power Play
60.5% (86)
51.8% (114)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
42.0% (81)
+8.0%
On power play, Mittelstadt has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Zacha is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (280).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Zacha
Home
47.3% (224)
52.2% (295)
Away
50.7% (217)
50.8% (311)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Zacha
P1
51.8%
50.5%
P2
51.0%
51.3%
P3
44.9%
52.0%
OT
40.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
55.1%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
49.0%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |