Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Smith shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Smith 41.4% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 62.7%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 82.6%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 65.4%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Mittelstadt
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Mittelstadt
Smith
Last 6: Mittelstadt 5-1 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
0
Mittelstadt
Smith
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
1
Mittelstadt
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
33.3% (153)
+11.4%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
56.5% (23)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
50.0% (2)
-10.0%
On power play, Smith has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots right. Mittelstadt is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Smith is 38.0% vs left-shot opponents (129).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Smith
Home
46.0% (491)
35.1% (111)
Away
42.4% (512)
38.8% (67)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Smith
P1
44.0%
41.5%
P2
46.4%
32.8%
P3
41.9%
33.3%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
39.3%
36.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Smith
36.0%▬
36.0%
36.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:47 | Neutral | Will Smith |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 1 | 17:25 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |