Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Coyle wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Rodrigues shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Rodrigues 47.3% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 76.8%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 53.0%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 65.9%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Coyle
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Coyle
Rodrigues
Last 7: Coyle 2-5 Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Rodrigues
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Rodrigues
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
0
3
Coyle
Rodrigues
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
47.9% (637)
+4.4%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
47.9% (71)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
37.3% (67)
+7.5%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Coyle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Coyle shoots right. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Coyle
Rodrigues
Home
49.0% (537)
48.3% (429)
Away
52.1% (516)
45.4% (346)
By Period
Coyle
Rodrigues
P1
48.7%
48.3%
P2
49.6%
46.9%
P3
53.1%
45.6%
OT
45.5%
44.4%
Final 5 min
49.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:18 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:12 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:33 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |