Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Guentzel 47.4% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 88.7%
Defensive zone
Coyle 71.7%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 62.2%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Coyle
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Coyle
Guentzel
Last 9: Coyle 3-6 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
2
Coyle
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Guentzel
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
2
Coyle
Guentzel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
49.0% (200)
+3.3%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
42.3% (111)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
45.8% (24)
-1.0%
On even strength, Coyle has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Coyle is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Coyle shoots right. Guentzel is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Coyle
Guentzel
Home
49.0% (537)
48.8% (166)
Away
52.1% (516)
44.4% (169)
By Period
Coyle
Guentzel
P1
48.7%
46.7%
P2
49.6%
48.5%
P3
53.1%
44.3%
OT
45.5%
42.9%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:26 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:48 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:15 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 02:15 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 13:16 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:34 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |