Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Bourque 46.7% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 53.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 68.6%
Neutral zone
Coyle 55.7%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Coyle
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Coyle
Bourque
Last 5: Coyle 3-2 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Bourque
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Bourque
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
47.0% (181)
+5.3%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
25.0% (16)
+19.3%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
42.9% (7)
+1.9%
On power play, Coyle has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Coyle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Coyle shoots right. Bourque is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
Coyle
Bourque
Home
49.0% (537)
41.9% (105)
Away
52.1% (516)
48.5% (99)
By Period
Coyle
Bourque
P1
48.7%
39.7%
P2
49.6%
39.3%
P3
53.1%
52.9%
Final 5 min
49.1%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 08:48 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 05:22 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |