Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.7% vs Frost 55.7% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 94.7%
Defensive zone
Coyle 57.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 70.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 75.1%
24.9%
75.1%
Coyle
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Coyle
Frost
Last 8: Coyle 6-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
0
Coyle
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (798)
55.0% (686)
-2.6%
Power Play
44.1% (59)
60.8% (166)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (175)
100.0% (5)
-54.3%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +54.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Coyle is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (778).
Coyle shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Coyle
Frost
Home
49.0% (537)
56.1% (428)
Away
52.7% (495)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Coyle
Frost
P1
49.5%
58.9%
P2
49.7%
55.4%
P3
53.0%
54.1%
OT
45.5%
70.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
62.0%▲
52.0%
50.8%
Frost
66.0%▲
60.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:59 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:52 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |