Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Frost 55.7% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 97.0%
Defensive zone
Frost 63.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 83.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 84.4%
15.6%
84.4%
Coyle
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Coyle
Frost
Last 8: Coyle 6-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
0
Coyle
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
54.9% (701)
-2.6%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
60.8% (166)
-16.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
100.0% (5)
-55.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +55.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Coyle is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Coyle shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Coyle
Frost
Home
49.0% (537)
56.0% (443)
Away
52.1% (516)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Coyle
Frost
P1
48.7%
58.9%
P2
49.6%
55.3%
P3
53.1%
54.0%
OT
45.5%
70.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:59 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:52 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |