Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Nosek 46.9% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 55.6%
Defensive zone
Coyle 80.2%
Neutral zone
Coyle 62.6%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
Coyle
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Coyle
Nosek
Last 10: Coyle 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
3
Coyle
Nosek
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
0
Coyle
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
1
Coyle
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
48.5% (66)
+3.8%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
100.0% (1)
-55.7%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
29.6% (27)
+15.2%
On power play, Nosek has a +55.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Coyle is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Coyle shoots right. Nosek is 37.5% vs right-shot opponents (32).
Home / Away
Coyle
Nosek
Home
49.0% (537)
44.0% (25)
Away
52.1% (516)
43.5% (69)
By Period
Coyle
Nosek
P1
48.7%
46.4%
P2
49.6%
34.2%
P3
53.1%
53.6%
Final 5 min
49.1%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
43.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:25 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 04:07 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |