Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Nosek 53.6% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nosek 59.7%
Defensive zone
Nosek 83.9%
Neutral zone
Nosek 66.9%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Coyle
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Coyle
Nosek
Last 10: Coyle 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
4
Coyle
Nosek
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
0
Coyle
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
1
Coyle
Nosek
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,856)
54.9% (2,674)
-5.5%
Power Play
50.0% (792)
44.7% (47)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (1,090)
47.4% (424)
-3.8%
On even strength, Nosek has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (6,979).
Coyle shoots right. Nosek is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
Coyle
Nosek
Home
49.8% (4,835)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
47.9% (4,903)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Coyle
Nosek
P1
49.4%
52.3%
P2
48.3%
54.0%
P3
48.8%
54.6%
OT
49.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.8%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:25 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 04:07 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 02:32 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 1 | 06:36 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 26, 2017 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |