Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Coyle wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 51.5% vs Johnson 45.7% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 60.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 88.5%
Neutral zone
Coyle 79.5%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 82.8%
82.8%
17.2%
Coyle
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Coyle
Johnson
Last 5: Coyle 4-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Coyle
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
0
Coyle
Johnson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,046)
44.6% (285)
+8.4%
Power Play
57.6% (144)
46.7% (60)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (287)
16.7% (6)
+26.9%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Coyle is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Coyle shoots right. Johnson is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (78).
Home / Away
Coyle
Johnson
Home
54.5% (719)
50.8% (179)
Away
48.8% (758)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Coyle
Johnson
P1
51.1%
41.3%
P2
50.0%
41.8%
P3
53.3%
49.6%
OT
57.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 06:33 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:44 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |