Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Kreider wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kreider 43.3% vs Larkin 52.7% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Kreider 76.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 85.9%
Neutral zone
Kreider 57.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Kreider
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Kreider
Larkin
Last 10: Kreider 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kreider
4
1
Kreider
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
5
Kreider
Larkin
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kreider
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (704)
51.7% (9,019)
-8.1%
Power Play
36.6% (71)
58.5% (2,125)
-21.9%
Penalty Kill
31.3% (32)
50.2% (1,122)
-18.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Kreider is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (508).
Kreider shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Kreider
Larkin
Home
43.4% (417)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
41.5% (390)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Kreider
Larkin
P1
41.3%
52.7%
P2
43.8%
53.1%
P3
43.0%
52.1%
OT
28.6%
58.4%
Final 5 min
46.2%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kreider
44.0%▲
38.0%
42.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:24 | Offensive | Chris Kreider |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Chris Kreider |
| Feb 17, 2022 | OT | 00:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | Chris Kreider |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:35 | Defensive | Chris Kreider |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Chris Kreider |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |