Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tierney on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tierney wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 46.2% vs Tavares 53.8% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 90.7%
Defensive zone
Tierney 67.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 72.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Tierney
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tierney
Tavares
Last 5: Tierney 4-1 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
2
0
Tierney
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tierney
2
1
Tierney
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (648)
54.0% (1,077)
-8.3%
Power Play
66.7% (12)
54.5% (275)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (145)
50.0% (18)
-5.9%
On power play, Tierney has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Tierney is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Tierney shoots left. Tavares is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (894).
Home / Away
Tierney
Tavares
Home
48.5% (394)
56.8% (655)
Away
43.1% (411)
51.6% (715)
By Period
Tierney
Tavares
P1
48.7%
54.1%
P2
49.0%
53.9%
P3
40.6%
54.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
45.7%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 09:20 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 12:12 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |