Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tierney wins 38.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 47.9% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tierney 65.4%
Defensive zone
Tierney 84.4%
Neutral zone
Tierney 70.7%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Tierney
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Tierney
Stamkos
Last 8: Tierney 1-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Tierney
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Tierney
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Tierney
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (193)
55.3% (628)
-8.7%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
55.1% (216)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (40)
40.2% (87)
+7.3%
On power play, Tierney has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tierney is 38.6% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Tierney shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Tierney
Stamkos
Home
47.9% (121)
55.5% (499)
Away
46.1% (115)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Tierney
Stamkos
P1
44.1%
50.7%
P2
50.0%
53.8%
P3
46.3%
55.9%
Final 5 min
52.4%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
47.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 03:50 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 08:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 08:30 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:49 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 16:51 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 16:34 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |