Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Wagner wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 47.3% vs Hayes 50.2% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 77.8%
Defensive zone
Wagner 76.2%
Neutral zone
Wagner 50.2%
Result
Chris Wagner favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Wagner
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Wagner
Hayes
Last 6: Wagner 3-3 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Wagner
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
2
0
Wagner
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Wagner
Hayes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (190)
51.3% (672)
-1.3%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
50.0% (78)
-30.0%
Penalty Kill
35.2% (54)
40.8% (76)
-5.6%
On power play, Hayes has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Wagner is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Wagner shoots right. Hayes is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Wagner
Hayes
Home
50.0% (134)
52.0% (404)
Away
41.7% (115)
48.6% (422)
By Period
Wagner
Hayes
P1
48.8%
50.7%
P2
42.0%
50.2%
P3
48.0%
49.8%
Final 5 min
50.0%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
46.2%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 13, 2020 | 1 | 18:00 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 1 | 19:08 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 1 | 16:43 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |