Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Wagner wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 49.0% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 91.1%
Defensive zone
Wagner 60.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 66.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Wagner
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Wagner
Stamkos
Last 7: Wagner 5-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
1
0
Wagner
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
2
0
Wagner
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Wagner
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (1,243)
50.4% (9,799)
+0.4%
Power Play
40.0% (20)
55.1% (1,725)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (307)
49.7% (825)
-7.7%
On power play, Stamkos has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Wagner is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (408).
Wagner shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Wagner
Stamkos
Home
49.8% (817)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
47.9% (753)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Wagner
Stamkos
P1
48.6%
49.1%
P2
48.6%
52.7%
P3
49.5%
50.9%
OT
50.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.2%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
48.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 14:37 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 01:35 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 12, 2017 | 3 | 08:23 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 12, 2017 | 2 | 12:31 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 12, 2017 | 1 | 15:33 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |